Yes She Can. Senator Hillary Clinton managed to get a much needed victory in Pennsylvania yesterday against Senator Barack Obama. Victory meant she needed to win by at least 8%, and she managed to pull 55% of the vote to Obama’s 45%. Clinton’s base supporters make up a large portion of the state’s population where blue collar voters gave Clinton the win. Another major factor was the large number of Catholics in Pennsylvania who favored Clinton by 70%. Senator Clinton was favored among female and older voters while Senator Obama remained stronger with younger and new voters. Obama outspent Clinton in the state by three times as much and his efforts do show in the polls because there were high numbers of newly registered voters that voted in his favor.
So how do the results from yesterday’s primary change the race to the nomination? They don’t. Senator Clinton is claiming she will fight and she can win. Barack Obama is claiming he is still victorious overall and will win in November. The same arguments both candidates previously made are still valid and will continue as they move ahead to Indiana and North Carolina.
The exit polls are not surprising but rather solidify a divide between Democrats which may become a problem in November’s election. The results didn’t change much, but they do show a significant and growing split between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama’s supporters. Race was equally polarizing as in previous primaries but other divides seem to be growing. Small town voters and blue collar workers were much more supportive of Clinton perhaps because of Obama’s recent comments on “bitter small-town America.”
Maybe the only person that won yesterday was McCain. As McCain is watching the Democrats split over two candidates he is working on uniting his own party. Both Clinton and Obama’s base supporters will be essential to the Democratic candidate in the general election. If they won’t share the ticket then it will be interesting to see how the Democratic Party can mend the split within their own party to keep these voters come November. It seems that since Pennsylvania didn’t solve
anything the May 6th primaries may be the final step. The nomination will come down to superdelegates and yesterday’s primary didn’t make their decision any easier. While Obama and Clinton move on, McCain is smiling.
Photo by Photo Mojo via Flickr
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1 response so far ↓
1 Mike // Apr 24, 2008 at 8:05 pm
The actual margin in Pennsylvania was 9.2%. On March 14th, Obama suggested to his donors on a conference call that anything less than 10 percent would be a victory. Take that with a grain of salt, but realize that starting down 26 points and closing at 9.2% is a solid achievement. I certainly don’t understand how the media can all of a sudden round 9.2 up to 10. That’s not what I learned in elementary school.
I don’t understand why Clinton’s victory is being so widely celebrated. On May 6th, Obama will crush Clinton in North Carolina. And I don’t think that should be celebrated either. The demographics support Clinton here, and they’ll support Obama in North Carolina. Clinton has no hope of cutting into Obama’s lead in North Carolina.
I take issue with your comment about exit polling, “The results didn’t change much”. In fact, Obama ate into Clinton’s base quite significantly. There was, however, just too much ground to make up too little time for a new politician without a brand name to rely on.
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